The death of Google has long been proclaimed in the media. In 2000 BusinessWeek ran an article on whether or not Google would be able to survive without taking on banner ads: their prediction, probably not. Kind of missed the boat there, BW.
The reason these articles get written is simply because at some point something will replace Google and that point will have major consequences. But that point will not come about because of privacy concerns or under pressure from the telecoms, it will arrive because something better will be introduced. Auletta's points about a move to Facebook and Twitter are more in line with what could happen to Google. Twitter is already redesigning itself with a new focus on search. And Google did find themselves rebuffed by Twitter, but Auletta doesn't mention Twitter's new big problem: Google Wave.
The most interesting thing Auletta speaks about is interference by the government. Google has already raised issues of net neutrality with its Google Voice number blocking system, and Wired recently ran an article on an Obama insider who says his office is open to looking at Google's possible monopoly. But to make the case the administration will have to also convince the people. Is John Smith willing to give up smooth integration with his gmail, google docs, blogger, android phone, etc. because the the government is worried Google is too big? Now, that will be interesting.
I think the point you brought up about government intervention is the most likely to cause problems for Google in the future. They better watch there backs cause you know those Demiis love there regulation. Good Work!!
ReplyDeleteI think it will come to the point where either Google buys Twitter or Twitter dies. It already seems to me (although I have no statistics to back this up) that Twitter is losing its hype. Google, however, will be around for a while, just because it's so important to our daily lives in our generation and the next generation that We'll probably be using it until the day we die...that is unless some technology comes along to make the internet or computers an ancient technology...which could likely happen
ReplyDeleteIt's surreal to see BusinessWeek, now on the auction block, making such commentary. I don't think that Google's vulnerable to the type of fads we've seen in instant messaging.
ReplyDeleteIt's strange to think that my first days as a young internet user involved ICQ (who uses that anymore!?) and AIM. Neither service do I use, but Gchat is amazing - incorporating video chat from my inbox - unheard of!
I think they don't have a monopoly...YET on the technology - other companies have the capability to provide a similar service, but they should worry about developing a respectable competitor.
The baseline of Google is it's search engine. There will always be a need for quick means of gathering information. Combine that with cutting edge services and you've got a combination that will weather fads with style.
I definitely agree with you that eventually large social networking sites like twitter will somehow combine with google. Sites like facebook and twitter are monsters because of the amount of traffic they get. Both sides know the potential a partnership could create. If they don't partner up, then I can see twitter's search engine, if it becomes good enough, taking over.
ReplyDeleteGovernment intervention is an interesting possibility. I guess i just still see google as relatively neutral and not harmful to the consumer. Until Google is controlling something and charging more for it (potentially web advertising), calling them a monopoly is still too strong for a Joe 6-pack like me.
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